Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Do the Iranians love their children too?

Mr. Gravity and I were watching the evening news this week when a story about Putin visiting the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came on. There was much speculation about WHY. Why Putin was shaking hands with the Iron-Fisted Iranian. And by doing so, causing such controversy with the Western world. As with all political situations, just look for the money...

1) Iran is an oil rich country. Russia, increasingly and slowly, is not. What oil reserves they do have are becoming virtually inaccessible and the reserves that remain untapped can be done so only at great expense. And since Russia is not a great innovator (i.e. researching oil alternatives), they need to align with a country that will pay them back for the support in a sticky political time. That is why they aren't best friends with China...both countries need the same things and can't get them from each other.

2) Start a new Cold War. The Cold War made Russia rich. The Cold War created Russian jobs. Since the Cold War has ended, the Russian economy is in the hands of the mafia (sorry, the oligarchy) and is in the shitter for 90% of the population. A war, especially a bloodless one, would make Putin popular among the people again. It would create jobs in defense, and give the Russian people a sense of pride they haven't felt since half of the world was afraid of them around 20 years ago.

3) Putin needs to become more popular in order to maintain the facade of a Russian Democracy. We saw his desperation for popularity when he did the beefcake photos on his "fishing trip" a month ago. (Trying to make a Russian woman swoon? Show your abs and thick shoulders and wear army green in the middle of a cold stream.) If his popularity goes (further) downward, he must resort to scare tactics or bullying (kicking the representatives out again; calling a new election before it's time) to keep his position of power. He has one advantage in this climate: the army won't storm the castle, remove him by force and ship him to Siberia to drink Wodka and play cards until the guard comes in to end his misery with a lone bullet to the back of the head.

But really, this works to our advantage. If Russia aligns with Iran, then we will know our enemy better. We know from past experience how the Russians work, how they negotiate. If that influence rubs off on Iran, then all the better. Our problems in the Middle East mainly stem from not knowing our enemy and what lengths they will go to in order to secure victory. We know what Russia will do in order to look good. We've been making each other look good for a very long time...


-K

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